Volume 31 / 2010
Gheorghe ZAMAN, Valentina VASILE, Marius-Răzvan SURUGIU, Camelia SURUGIU
Abstract: Tourism provides a lot of opportunities for sustainable economic development. At local level, by its triggering effect it could represent a factor of economic recovery, by putting to good use the local material and human potential. By its position of predominantly final-branch, tourism exercises to a large impact on national economy by the vector of final demand, for which the possible and/or desirable variant for the future is an economic-social demand that must be satisfied by variants of total output. Using the input-output model (IO model) a comparison was made of the matrix of direct technical coefficients (aij) and the one of the total requirement coefficients (bij) with the assistance of which the direct and propagated effects were determined for this activity by the indicators defining the dimensions of national economy.
Keywords: tourism; economic impact; multipliers; input-output; Romania.
JEL classification: D57; L83; O11.
Nuno Carlos LEITĂO, Marius Răzvan SURUGIU, Camelia SURUGIU
Abstract. This manuscript examines the link between trade and migration flows using a gravity model for the period 1995-2007 between Portugal and European Union countries. We also include in our sample the Portuguese speaking countries (PALOPS), i.e., ex-colonies. Globalization drives people to migrate, in some countries, immigration being more pronounced las in Portugal, in last decade, this country receiving foreign residents. This is a new reality to Portuguese economy. For many years, the Portuguese have emigrated to European countries, the United States of America and other countries. Currently, Portugal is witnessing a reverse trend, Brazilian, Cape Verde, Ukrainian and Romanian communities choose Portugal as a destination country. We find evidence that immigration has a positive influence in bilateral trade. We also introduce economic size and regional trade agreements (RTA); these proxies confirming a positive impact of bilateral trade. These results show that the gravity model can explain the pattern of bloc's trade. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that trade increases if the transport decreases.
Keywords: Trade; Immigration; Gravity model; Portugal.
JEL Classification: F14; F22.
Simona Gabriela MAŞCA, Viorela Ligia VĂIDEAN
Abstract: Our study characterizes the outward FDI phenomenon in Romania in the light of Dunning's Investment Development Path theory, based on the relationship between a country's development level and its net international investment position, that has previously been applied to most CEE countries except for ours. A series of indicators are used, concluding that, nowadays, Romania is situated in the second stage of IDP. More, we found that the IDP paradigm is generally applicable to Romania; the specific feature consists in bigger growth rates of FDI inflows than of GDP in the first stages of IDP. Some policy implications are drawn.
Keywords: multinationals; outward FDI; international investment position; IDP theory; descriptive analysis.
JEL classification: F21; F23; F43.
AN EXTENSIVE STUDY ON THE DISTURBANCES GENERATED BY COLINEARITY IN A LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL WITH THREE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
Abstract: In econometric models, linear regressions with three explanatory variables are widely used. As examples can be cited: Cobb-Douglas production function with three inputs (capital, labour and disembodied technical change), Kmenta function used for approximation of CES production function parameters, error-correction models, etc. In case of multiple linear regressions, estimated parameters values and some statistical tests are influenced by collinearity between explanatory variables. In fact, collinearity acts as a noise which distorts the signal (proper parameter values). This influence is emphasized by the coefficients of alignment to collinearity hazard values. The respective coefficients have some similarities with the signal to noise ratio. Consequently, it may be used when the type of collinearity is determined. For these reasons, the main purpose of this paper is to identify all the modeling factors and quantify their impact on the above-mentioned indicator values in the context of linear regression with three explanatory variables.
Keywords: types of collinearity; coefficient of mediated correlation; rank of explanatory variable; order of attractor of collinearity; mediated collinearity; anticollinearity.
JEL classification: C13; C20; C51; C52.
Abstract: The paper proposes a new approach to the relation between socio-economic development and time. Measuring the economic development of a country by GDP it is obvious that the indicator is an insufficient measure in order to illustrate the progress of the society. National Time Accounting is a set of methods for measuring, comparing and analyzing how people spend and experience their time. The approach is based on evaluated time use or the flow of emotional experience during daily activities. In order to determine the level of development an international system of new statistical indicators was elaborated to express development trough the quality of life growing. The indicators are related to the economic level of the country, living and environmental conditions, employment and the quality of human capital in labour market, but also they reflect the household activities, the balance between professional and private life of people, health condition. The U-index helps to overcome some of the limitations of interpersonal comparisons of subjective well-being.
Keywords: time use; working time; economic development; time accounts.
JEL classification: J22.
Victor PLATON, Simona FRONE, Andreea CONSTANTINESCU, Sorina JURIST
Abstract. This is the first article in a series1 meant to identify secondary effects of fuel production and consumption.The article presents, in synthesis, the main ideas and contributions of the paper "Economic effects of biofuels production and consumption in Romania", written by the authors in 2009 within the research programme of the Institute of National Economy: Economic social mechanisms and policies of increasing environmental factors in accordance with the European and world programs for diminishing the effects of the world resources crisis. The paper pursues the adjustment process. The paper pursues the adjustment process of fossil fuel consumption to the rigors of an economy aiming to diminish carboncomposites emissions in atmosphere. At the same time, it is a warning regarding the secondary effects that might occur from the overblown consumption and production of first-generation biofuel.
Keywords: biofuel. production potential. EU strategy for biofuels. subventions. secondary effects.
JEL classification: D60; D7; E31; H13; L65; L71; Q42; Q43.
Valeriu IOAN-FRANC, Marius Andrei DIAMESCU
Abstract. The paper basically deals with two important concepts: security economy and economic security. The former is a relatively new term implying the way of building an entire system of protection by measures and activities to prevent deliberate actions affecting the quality of life and goods, while the latter is a term understood only post factum, when the threats to the economic security of a state have had effect. Therefore, a macroeconomic equilibrium at the world level should be correlated with internal political, economic and social equilibrium in order to ensure long-term sustainable development of the economy.
Keywords: Public economics; structure and scope of Government; Economic integration; Public policy; General; International or Comparative.
JEL classification: HO; H1; F15; J78; N30.
Abstract: A key objective of regional development policy is to reduce disparities between regions and to ensure a relatively balanced level of development. To achieve this goal studies and social and economic analysis based on certain techniques and methods of evaluation are necessary.In scientific literature, there are plenty of models that can be applied to assess regional disparities. One of the methods commonly used in practice is related to the calculation and analysis of the degree of concentration/diversification of activities within a region.The increase or decrease in the degree of concentration of certain activities or areas of activity in a region provides information on:
- the level of overall economic development;
- economic development and growth rate;
- the specific features of the region, the potential, local traditions, etc.
The expert analysis indicates that, in a high level of overall development or a sustained economic growth rate, there are favorable conditions for economic activities to locate in any region, so they are relatively uniformly distributed throughout the country.
Knowing the degree of concentration and also the influence factors are useful in making decisions and setting regional policy measures.
This article proposes a synthetic analysis of the development level of regions in Romania with the concentration/diversification model (Gini/Struck coefficients), based on the existing key statistical indicators.
Keywords: regional disparities; concentration/diversification; regional analysis.
JEL classification: R1; R12; R15.