Volume 48 / 2019

Volume 48/2019


Back-Testing the Effectiveness  of Value  at Risk Model


Author: Nedim CELEBIC

Author: Adisa ARAPOVIC


Abstract: This paper presents an analysis about credit cards and their consumerism. Before the discussion about the credit cards, the historical background is presented. In the discussion about the credit card types, the comparison between developing countries and developed countries is made. In this regard, credit cards of America and Pakistan are discussed, which have wide differences due to their scope and authority as well as due to interest rate polices. After this, the role of credit cards in the present era of consumerism is discussed, which clarifies that the role of credit cards in the globalized world has increased. No doubt, there are some disadvantages of credit cards but the role of credit cards is crucial and convince us to neglect all shortcomings or weak points. So, it can be said that role of credit cards in consumerism is noteworthy.

Classification-JEL: D81, G11, G32

Keywords: Value at risk, Back-testing, Kupiec, Christoffersen, Basel Traffic Light


Credit Cards in Present Era Regarding Their Advantages & Disadvantages

Author: Tariq MAHMOOD

Author: Abdul Quddus SUHAIB

Abstract: This paper presents the water management during 1945-1989 in Romania, all through the communist and command economy period. It follows the investments, waterbeds management works, construction of dams and energy plants all around Romania. The extensive irrigation program as well as the forced industrial development were specific for this period. On the other hand, water supply for population and sewage network was developing strongly. Not all this development had positive follow-up, as conclusions point out in the end.

 Classification-JEL:F33, G41

Keywords: Credit cards, financial institutions, consumer culture, credit & debt


Financial Services on the Black Market

Author: Paweł DEC


Abstract:  The article concerns the problems of the black market and financial services offered to entrepreneurs. It is a quite poorly explored area of ​​economics, which, because of its specificity, requires very meticulous research methods. Entrepreneurs conducting their activities have in virtually every country the opportunity to take loans to black. It is widely known that lending to black is the better, if you can easily gain funds and if the creative accounting is possible, and the penalties in this respect are small. The authors tried to prove the thesis that there is a potential demand for illegal loans in the sector of small and medium-sized enterprises that can be implemented in case of fulfilment of business risks and growing funding gap of small and medium-sized enterprises in the economy. The article presents the results of their own painstaking research on a sample of 609 companies.

Classification-JEL: G21, G23, E26

Keywords lack market; Financial service, Illegal loans.


Forecasting of Nigeria Manufacturing Sector Growth Rates Using Arima Model

Author: Jonathan O. ONIORE

Author: Uju R. EZENEKWE

Author: Uche C.C NWOGWUGWU

Abstract: The objective of this study is to identify a good forecasting model that can predict Nigeria’s future manufacturing sector growth rate and to ascertain whether policy makers could maintain a steady and sustainable growth rate in the manufacturing sector. The study employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on annual data from 1970 to 2014 on manufacturing production index (MPI) as a measure of manufacturing sector growth rate. The ARIMA model selected is the Autoregressive (AR) [ARIMA (1, 0, 0)]. That is, the AR(1) model was selected as the most appropriate for forecasting model for manufacturing sector growth rates in Nigeria. The forecasted values of manufacturing sector growth for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 using Dynamic Forecast were 72.1%, 75.6%, 75.9%, 76.4%, 76.8% and 77.2% respectively. The major finding of this study is that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector future growth rate is moving gradually with an average annual projected growth of approximately 90.8 %. The projected rate showed that Nigeria needs to double her efforts in order to fructify its vision of becoming twenty largest economies in the world by 2020 and the 12th largest economy by 2050.

 Classification-JEL: O4, L60, C53, N37

Keywords: Economic Growth, Manufacturing, Forecasting, ARIMA, Nigeria


The Stages of Evolution of the Labour Content

Author: Florin Marius PAVELESCU

Abstract The paper analyses the evolution of the labour content from the historical point of view by adopting the concept of waves of human civilization defined by A. Toffler (1983). It is remarked that industrial revolutions generated crucial mutations in the labour content. It is detected a continuous increase of the degree of complexity of the systems of production organization as the labour force was less directly implied in the production of primary needs goods and energy sources and was more and more allocated to the activities concerning the processing of the informations. In this context, the evolution of the labour content is not determinated only by the technological changes, but also by the other factors, such as the economic paradigms, labour market institutions and the features of the labour supply. A special attention is dedicated to the polarization of qualifications and to the role of the human capital in sustaining the long run economic growth. It is revealed the importance of the adequate definition of labour content in order to ensure the rational use of labour resources and the continuous growth of labour productivity.

JEL Classification: B20, D46, E 24, J24, O14, O33

Keywords: Industrial revolution, value theory, system of production organization, institutional framework, teleworking, human capital


Water Resources in Romania during 1990-2018

Author: Victor PLATON


Abstract: This paper presents the water management during 1990-2018 in Romania, all through the transition and free market economy period. It follows the institutional structure, investments, water management and consumption, water quality all around Romania. The modernization of legislation and institutions after Romania joined the EU are specific for this period. On the other hand, water supply for population and sewage network received significant funds from EU. Conservation measures were taken as renaturation of Danube and improving fish migration. Excessive building of micro-hydro plants damaged the good status of mountain rivers.

JEL Classification: A10, H54, P28

Keywords:  water resources, water management, dam, sewage, water supply


The Econometric Analysis between Divorce Phenomenon and Economic-Social Variables in Romania

Author: Andreea-Ionela PUIU

Abstract  We are currently observing an increased interest in studying the factors of influence that may cause changes in the family structures and may contribute to the emergence of divorce in our contemporary society. According to the data provided by the National Institute of Statistics, Romania does not represent an exception in this respect and research aimed to distinguish the most important factors that contribute to the expansion of this phenomenon, identifies economic causes as an essential factor in settling such a decision. In this paper it is intended to establish a possible link between the number of divorces in Romania and socio-economic predictors such as, the age at the first marriage for men and women, the monthly average nominal salary, the unemployment rate, the number of graduates in the pre-university education, the percentage of the urban population in the total population and the number of dwellings newly built and received by beneficiaries. Research within the counties, between 1996 and 2014, through a panel data analysis. Also, the present paper is proposing to study the actual differences between rural and urban areas, in order to have a reliable delimitation of the environmental determinants that may lead to this family degradation process.

JEL Classification: C12, C13, C23

Keywords: Divorce, Family, Econometric Analysis, Fixed Effects Model, Panel Data Analysis